A simulator showing the spread of coronavirus.

Simulation of the spread of SARS-2 Coronavirus with confinement

This animation shows how the new Coronavirus is spreading in Spain. Under the same model and two different scenarios: with and without confinement. They used real data on how this propagation takes place. Data from the census, from the 62 most populated cities, from the Ministry of Health, etc. Covering a total of 20 million inhabitants in this simulation.

A simulation of the spread in Spain of Coronavirus with and without confinement measures.

These are the two scenarios:

  • Red: No confinement measures taken and the virus spreads freely.
  • Blue: Confinement measures apply from the first week. Closing of schools, teleworking, social distancing and travel restrictions.

The tool used is called EpiGraph. And was developed by the Computer Architecture group of the Carlos III University. Together with the Barcelona Super computing Center. Also National Center for Epidemiology and CIBERESP.

As Victor said in the tweet.

“The graph shows how with interventions. an epidemic not only ” flattens the curve ” but significantly reduces spread area. [which is equivalent to cases / deaths].”

Those infected could reach 14 million during a second wave.

In the case of Spain, initial results indicate that infected people exceed three million. Including asymptomatic people. But could reach 14 million during a second wave if distancing measures were not taken.

With the new tool, it is possible to analyze how the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spreads.

  • To model the disease curve. Including isolation measures.
  • To make a prediction of evolution based on the permitted activities.
  • To evaluate the possible effect of vaccination. on the spread of the epidemic.

In addition, EpiGraph includes a model of the interaction between SARS-2 coronavirus spread and climatic and meteorological factors, such as:

  • temperature.
  • atmospheric pressure.
  • and humidity levels.


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